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Friday · August 7 · 6:45 pm ✦

REDS @ NATIONALS

Nationals Park. · 88 degrees, overcast, wind 9 mph out to rf

Final

Reds 3
NATIONALS 5

Our Pick

CINCINNATI REDS, narrowly

✗ Wrong

Projected: 3–4 Cincinnati Reds · Actual: 3–5 Nationals

51%

Consensus

— Simulation Breakdown —

Simulation Pick Reds Nationals Projected Result
Baseline Cincinnati Reds 51% 49% 3–3
Pitcher-weighted Washington Nationals 49% 51% 4–4
Platoon-weighted Cincinnati Reds 51% 49% 3–3
Pitcher + Platoon Washington Nationals 42% 58% 3–4
Logistic Cincinnati Reds 56% 44%
Random Forest Cincinnati Reds 62% 38%
Consensus Cincinnati Reds 51% 49% 3–4
2 of 6 sims got it right — Pitcher-weighted and Pitcher + Platoon caught what the others missed.

— How We've Done On These Teams —

Reds this season

64–59

52% across 123 games

Nationals this season

68–56

55% across 124 games