Track Record ✦ this season
54.8% Accuracy
1284–1058 across 2342 games · season opened March 26
— By Simulation Type —
| Simulation | Correct | Total | Accuracy | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline | 1224 | 2342 | 52.3% | |
| Pitcher-weighted | 1196 | 2342 | 51.1% | |
| Platoon-weighted | 1180 | 2342 | 50.4% | |
| Pitcher + Platoon | 1197 | 2342 | 51.1% | |
| Logistic | 1177 | 2342 | 50.3% | |
| Random Forest ★ leader | 1309 | 2342 | 55.9% | |
| Consensus | 1284 | 2342 | 54.8% |
Random Forest is leading individual model by 3.6 points. Consensus edges out 5 of 6 sims.
— Per-Team Accuracy —
★ Top 5 teams
Dodgers
100–57
63.7%
Tigers
95–58
62.1%
Rockies
94–60
61.0%
Padres
97–63
60.6%
Phillies
94–64
59.5%
✗ Bottom 5 teams
Blue Jays
73–82
47.1%
Guardians
77–81
48.7%
Cubs
77–80
49.0%
Rays
78–80
49.4%
White Sox
80–81
49.7%
17-point spread between best and worst — Blue Jays the hardest to call.
— Confidence Calibration —
Are our confidence numbers honest? Compare what we said to what actually happened.
| Confidence band | Picks | Avg predicted | Actual rate | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50-55% | 1405 | 52.3% | 52.5% | +0.2 |
| 55-60% | 657 | 57.1% | 55.4% | -1.7 |
| 60-65% | 185 | 62.0% | 64.9% | +2.9 |
| 65-70% | 55 | 66.9% | 58.2% | -8.7 |
| 70%+ | 37 | 73.6% | 78.4% | +4.8 |
Overconfidence shows up most in the 65-70% band.
— Lineup Impact —
| Lineup status | Games | Correct | Accuracy | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real lineups | 1724 | 933 | 54.1% | |
| Fallback lineups | 618 | 351 | 56.8% |
Fallback-lineup predictions are 2.7 points more accurate. 26% of season picks rely on fallback lineups.
— Pick Distribution —
Avg confidence
55.1%
across 2344 picks
Home team picks
58.9%
vs MLB home rate ~54%
Unanimous picks
13%
all sims agreed
— Recent Performance —
Last 30 days
★ Best day
2 of 2
Tuesday, October 6 · 100.0%
✗ Worst day
0 of 1
Thursday, October 8 · 0.0%
Sep 11
Sep 26
Oct 10
| Date | Correct | Total | Accuracy | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu, Oct 8 | 0 | 1 | 0.0% | |
| Wed, Oct 7 | 1 | 4 | 25.0% | |
| Tue, Oct 6 | 2 | 2 | 100.0% | |
| Mon, Oct 5 | 1 | 2 | 50.0% | |
| Sun, Oct 4 | 1 | 2 | 50.0% | |
| Sat, Oct 3 | 1 | 4 | 25.0% | |
| Thu, Oct 1 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | |
| Wed, Sep 30 | 2 | 4 | 50.0% | |
| Tue, Sep 29 | 2 | 4 | 50.0% | |
| Sun, Sep 27 | 8 | 15 | 53.3% |