Track Record ✦ this season
56.2% Accuracy
712–555 across 1267 games · season opened March 26
— By Simulation Type —
| Simulation | Correct | Total | Accuracy | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline | 646 | 1267 | 51.0% | |
| Pitcher-weighted | 628 | 1267 | 49.6% | |
| Platoon-weighted | 659 | 1267 | 52.0% | |
| Pitcher + Platoon | 628 | 1267 | 49.6% | |
| Logistic | 656 | 1267 | 51.8% | |
| Random Forest ★ leader | 759 | 1267 | 59.9% | |
| Consensus | 712 | 1267 | 56.2% |
Random Forest is leading individual model by 7.9 points. Consensus edges out 5 of 6 sims.
— Per-Team Accuracy —
★ Top 5 teams
Tigers
55–28
66.3%
Padres
54–29
65.1%
Phillies
55–30
64.7%
Mariners
54–30
64.3%
Rockies
54–31
63.5%
✗ Bottom 5 teams
Cubs
39–46
45.9%
Guardians
40–45
47.1%
Blue Jays
42–44
48.8%
Royals
42–43
49.4%
Rays
41–41
50.0%
20-point spread between best and worst — Cubs the hardest to call.
— Confidence Calibration —
Are our confidence numbers honest? Compare what we said to what actually happened.
| Confidence band | Picks | Avg predicted | Actual rate | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50-55% | 709 | 52.4% | 53.0% | +0.7 |
| 55-60% | 366 | 57.1% | 57.9% | +0.8 |
| 60-65% | 122 | 62.1% | 62.3% | +0.1 |
| 65-70% | 38 | 67.0% | 57.9% | -9.1 |
| 70%+ | 31 | 73.7% | 80.6% | +6.9 |
Overconfidence shows up most in the 65-70% band.
— Lineup Impact —
| Lineup status | Games | Correct | Accuracy | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real lineups | 902 | 497 | 55.1% | |
| Fallback lineups | 365 | 215 | 58.9% |
Fallback-lineup predictions are 3.8 points more accurate. 29% of season picks rely on fallback lineups.
— Pick Distribution —
Avg confidence
55.6%
across 1282 picks
Home team picks
58.1%
vs MLB home rate ~54%
Unanimous picks
14%
all sims agreed
— Recent Performance —
Last 30 days
★ Best day
9 of 10
Monday, June 15 · 90.0%
✗ Worst day
3 of 14
Saturday, June 20 · 21.4%
Jun 8
Jun 23
Jul 7
| Date | Correct | Total | Accuracy | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue, Jul 7 | 7 | 16 | 43.8% | |
| Mon, Jul 6 | 6 | 8 | 75.0% | |
| Sun, Jul 5 | 6 | 15 | 40.0% | |
| Sat, Jul 4 | 11 | 15 | 73.3% | |
| Fri, Jul 3 | 4 | 13 | 30.8% | |
| Thu, Jul 2 | 4 | 9 | 44.4% | |
| Wed, Jul 1 | 10 | 14 | 71.4% | |
| Tue, Jun 30 | 7 | 15 | 46.7% | |
| Mon, Jun 29 | 6 | 13 | 46.2% | |
| Sun, Jun 28 | 7 | 15 | 46.7% |