Track Record ✦ this season
59.3% Accuracy
396–272 across 668 games · season opened March 26
— By Simulation Type —
| Simulation | Correct | Total | Accuracy | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline | 329 | 668 | 49.3% | |
| Pitcher-weighted | 338 | 668 | 50.6% | |
| Platoon-weighted | 352 | 668 | 52.7% | |
| Pitcher + Platoon | 326 | 668 | 48.8% | |
| Logistic | 346 | 668 | 51.8% | |
| Random Forest ★ leader | 468 | 668 | 70.1% | |
| Consensus | 396 | 668 | 59.3% |
Random Forest is leading individual model by 17.4 points. Consensus edges out 5 of 6 sims.
— Per-Team Accuracy —
★ Top 5 teams
Red Sox
32–12
72.7%
Padres
31–12
72.1%
Tigers
31–13
70.5%
Angels
31–14
68.9%
Astros
30–14
68.2%
✗ Bottom 5 teams
Rays
17–25
40.5%
Blue Jays
20–25
44.4%
Cubs
21–24
46.7%
Guardians
22–24
47.8%
Royals
22–23
48.9%
32-point spread between best and worst — Rays the hardest to call.
— Confidence Calibration —
Are our confidence numbers honest? Compare what we said to what actually happened.
| Confidence band | Picks | Avg predicted | Actual rate | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50-55% | 328 | 52.5% | 54.6% | +2.1 |
| 55-60% | 198 | 57.3% | 62.6% | +5.3 |
| 60-65% | 83 | 62.3% | 65.1% | +2.8 |
| 65-70% | 30 | 67.1% | 53.3% | -13.8 |
| 70%+ | 28 | 73.6% | 78.6% | +4.9 |
Overconfidence shows up most in the 65-70% band.
— Lineup Impact —
| Lineup status | Games | Correct | Accuracy | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real lineups | 456 | 264 | 57.9% | |
| Fallback lineups | 212 | 132 | 62.3% |
Fallback-lineup predictions are 4.4 points more accurate. 32% of season picks rely on fallback lineups.
— Pick Distribution —
Avg confidence
56.7%
across 683 picks
Home team picks
58.4%
vs MLB home rate ~54%
Unanimous picks
17%
all sims agreed
— Recent Performance —
Last 30 days
★ Best day
6 of 7
Thursday, May 21 · 85.7%
✗ Worst day
2 of 10
Thursday, May 7 · 20.0%
Apr 24
May 9
May 23
| Date | Correct | Total | Accuracy | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, May 23 | 6 | 14 | 42.9% | |
| Fri, May 22 | 7 | 14 | 50.0% | |
| Thu, May 21 | 6 | 7 | 85.7% | |
| Wed, May 20 | 7 | 15 | 46.7% | |
| Tue, May 19 | 5 | 15 | 33.3% | |
| Mon, May 18 | 7 | 14 | 50.0% | |
| Sun, May 17 | 11 | 15 | 73.3% | |
| Sat, May 16 | 4 | 15 | 26.7% | |
| Fri, May 15 | 10 | 15 | 66.7% | |
| Thu, May 14 | 6 | 11 | 54.5% |