Back to the recap

Tuesday · July 28 · 6:45 pm ✦

BLUE JAYS @ NATIONALS

Nationals Park. · 80 degrees, overcast, wind 9 mph out to rf

Final

Blue Jays 6
NATIONALS 8

Our Pick

TORONTO BLUE JAYS, narrowly

✗ Wrong

Projected: 4–3 Toronto Blue Jays · Actual: 6–8 Nationals

53%

Consensus

— Simulation Breakdown —

Simulation Pick Blue Jays Nationals Projected Result
Baseline Toronto Blue Jays 56% 44% 4–3
Pitcher-weighted Washington Nationals 47% 53% 3–3
Platoon-weighted Toronto Blue Jays 62% 38% 4–3
Pitcher + Platoon Toronto Blue Jays 58% 42% 4–3
Logistic Washington Nationals 48% 52%
Random Forest Washington Nationals 44% 56%
Consensus Toronto Blue Jays 53% 47% 4–3
3 of 6 sims got it right.

— How We've Done On These Teams —

Blue Jays this season

61–63

49% across 124 games

Nationals this season

68–56

55% across 124 games