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Monday · July 27 · 6:45 pm ✦

BLUE JAYS @ NATIONALS

Nationals Park. · 84 degrees, partly cloudy, wind 5 mph out to lf

Final

BLUE JAYS 3
Nationals 2

Our Pick

WASHINGTON NATIONALS

✗ Wrong

Projected: 3–3 Washington Nationals · Actual: 3–2 Blue Jays

56%

Consensus

— Simulation Breakdown —

Simulation Pick Blue Jays Nationals Projected Result
Baseline Toronto Blue Jays 53% 47% 4–3
Pitcher-weighted Washington Nationals 42% 58% 2–3
Platoon-weighted Washington Nationals 45% 55% 3–4
Pitcher + Platoon Toronto Blue Jays 53% 47% 3–3
Logistic Washington Nationals 36% 64%
Random Forest Washington Nationals 37% 63%
Consensus Washington Nationals 44% 56% 3–3
2 of 6 sims got it right — Baseline and Pitcher + Platoon caught what the others missed.

— How We've Done On These Teams —

Blue Jays this season

61–63

49% across 124 games

Nationals this season

68–56

55% across 124 games