Back to the recap

Sunday · July 12 · 1:36 PM ✦

YANKEES @ NATIONALS

Nationals Park. · 83 degrees, partly cloudy, wind 7 mph in from rf

Final

YANKEES 5
Nationals 3

Our Pick

WASHINGTON NATIONALS, narrowly

✗ Wrong

Projected: 3–3 Washington Nationals · Actual: 5–3 Yankees

51%

Consensus

— Simulation Breakdown —

Simulation Pick Yankees Nationals Projected Result
Baseline Washington Nationals 49% 51% 3–3
Pitcher-weighted New York Yankees 58% 42% 3–3
Platoon-weighted Washington Nationals 45% 55% 3–3
Pitcher + Platoon Washington Nationals 45% 55% 3–3
Logistic Washington Nationals 48% 52%
Random Forest Washington Nationals 45% 55%
Consensus Washington Nationals 49% 51% 3–3
1 of 6 sims got it right — Pitcher-weighted caught what the others missed.

— How We've Done On These Teams —

Yankees this season

65–58

53% across 123 games

Nationals this season

69–56

55% across 125 games