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Friday · July 3 · 6:45 pm ✦

PIRATES @ NATIONALS

Nationals Park. · 99 degrees, clear, wind 7 mph l to r

Final

Pirates 5
NATIONALS 9

Our Pick

PITTSBURGH PIRATES, narrowly

✗ Wrong

Projected: 4–3 Pittsburgh Pirates · Actual: 5–9 Nationals

52%

Consensus

— Simulation Breakdown —

Simulation Pick Pirates Nationals Projected Result
Baseline Pittsburgh Pirates 55% 45% 4–4
Pitcher-weighted Pittsburgh Pirates 58% 42% 4–3
Platoon-weighted Pittsburgh Pirates 58% 42% 5–3
Pitcher + Platoon Pittsburgh Pirates 55% 45% 4–3
Logistic Washington Nationals 43% 57%
Random Forest Washington Nationals 45% 55%
Consensus Pittsburgh Pirates 52% 48% 4–3
2 of 6 sims got it right — Logistic and Random Forest caught what the others missed.

— How We've Done On These Teams —

Pirates this season

45–40

53% across 85 games

Nationals this season

45–41

52% across 86 games