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Sunday · July 5 · 1:05 PM ✦

PIRATES @ NATIONALS

Nationals Park. · 92 degrees, partly cloudy, wind 2 mph out to lf

Final

PIRATES 11
Nationals 5

Our Pick

WASHINGTON NATIONALS

✗ Wrong

Projected: 3–3 Washington Nationals · Actual: 11–5 Pirates

55%

Consensus

— Simulation Breakdown —

Simulation Pick Pirates Nationals Projected Result
Baseline Washington Nationals 44% 56% 3–3
Pitcher-weighted Pittsburgh Pirates 58% 42% 3–2
Platoon-weighted Washington Nationals 35% 65% 3–4
Pitcher + Platoon Washington Nationals 38% 62% 3–4
Logistic Washington Nationals 48% 52%
Random Forest Washington Nationals 44% 56%
Consensus Washington Nationals 45% 55% 3–3
1 of 6 sims got it right — Pitcher-weighted caught what the others missed.

— How We've Done On These Teams —

Pirates this season

45–40

53% across 85 games

Nationals this season

45–41

52% across 86 games