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Monday · June 22 · 6:45 pm ✦

PHILLIES @ NATIONALS

Nationals Park. · 83 degrees, overcast, wind 10 mph out to rf

Final

Phillies 1
NATIONALS 4

Our Pick

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES, narrowly

✗ Wrong

Projected: 4–3 Philadelphia Phillies · Actual: 1–4 Nationals

52%

Consensus

— Simulation Breakdown —

Simulation Pick Phillies Nationals Projected Result
Baseline Philadelphia Phillies 53% 47% 4–3
Pitcher-weighted Philadelphia Phillies 56% 44% 3–3
Platoon-weighted Philadelphia Phillies 55% 44% 4–3
Pitcher + Platoon Philadelphia Phillies 53% 47% 4–3
Logistic Washington Nationals 48% 52%
Random Forest Washington Nationals 46% 54%
Consensus Philadelphia Phillies 52% 48% 4–3
2 of 6 sims got it right — Logistic and Random Forest caught what the others missed.

— How We've Done On These Teams —

Phillies this season

56–30

65% across 86 games

Nationals this season

46–41

53% across 87 games