Back to the recap

Saturday · May 16 · 4:06 PM ✦

ORIOLES @ NATIONALS

Nationals Park. · 83 degrees, sunny, wind 7 mph out to rf

Final

Orioles 3
NATIONALS 13

Our Pick

BALTIMORE ORIOLES, narrowly

✗ Wrong

Projected: 3–3 Baltimore Orioles · Actual: 3–13 Nationals

53%

Consensus

— Simulation Breakdown —

Simulation Pick Orioles Nationals Projected Result
Baseline Baltimore Orioles 55% 45% 3–2
Pitcher-weighted Baltimore Orioles 56% 44% 4–3
Platoon-weighted Baltimore Orioles 62% 38% 3–2
Pitcher + Platoon Washington Nationals 38% 62% 3–4
Logistic Washington Nationals 48% 52%
Random Forest Baltimore Orioles 65% 35%
Consensus Baltimore Orioles 53% 47% 3–3
2 of 6 sims got it right — Pitcher + Platoon and Logistic caught what the others missed.

— How We've Done On These Teams —

Orioles this season

26–17

60% across 43 games

Nationals this season

27–19

59% across 46 games