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Wednesday · August 12 · 7:07 pm ✦

RED SOX @ BLUE JAYS

Rogers Centre. · 71 degrees, partly cloudy, wind 5 mph out to rf

Final

Red Sox 4
BLUE JAYS 6

Our Pick

BOSTON RED SOX, narrowly

✗ Wrong

Projected: 4–3 Boston Red Sox · Actual: 4–6 Blue Jays

51%

Consensus

— Simulation Breakdown —

Simulation Pick Red Sox Blue Jays Projected Result
Baseline Boston Red Sox 55% 45% 3–3
Pitcher-weighted Toronto Blue Jays 45% 55% 3–3
Platoon-weighted Boston Red Sox 51% 49% 3–3
Pitcher + Platoon Boston Red Sox 58% 42% 4–3
Logistic Boston Red Sox 52% 48%
Random Forest Toronto Blue Jays 42% 58%
Consensus Boston Red Sox 51% 49% 4–3
2 of 6 sims got it right — Pitcher-weighted and Random Forest caught what the others missed.

— How We've Done On These Teams —

Red Sox this season

66–57

54% across 123 games

Blue Jays this season

61–63

49% across 124 games