Back to the recap

Monday · June 22 · 7:07 pm ✦

ASTROS @ BLUE JAYS

Rogers Centre. · 60 degrees, partly cloudy, wind 11 mph r to l

Final

Astros 2
BLUE JAYS 4

Our Pick

HOUSTON ASTROS, narrowly

✗ Wrong

Projected: 4–4 Houston Astros · Actual: 2–4 Blue Jays

53%

Consensus

— Simulation Breakdown —

Simulation Pick Astros Blue Jays Projected Result
Baseline Houston Astros 64% 36% 5–3
Pitcher-weighted Houston Astros 62% 38% 5–3
Platoon-weighted Houston Astros 58% 42% 4–4
Pitcher + Platoon Toronto Blue Jays 44% 56% 3–4
Logistic Houston Astros 50% 50%
Random Forest Toronto Blue Jays 33% 67%
Consensus Houston Astros 53% 47% 4–4
2 of 6 sims got it right — Pitcher + Platoon and Random Forest caught what the others missed.

— How We've Done On These Teams —

Astros this season

52–34

60% across 86 games

Blue Jays this season

42–45

48% across 87 games