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Saturday · May 23 · 3:07 pm ✦

PIRATES @ BLUE JAYS

Rogers Centre. · 68 degrees, roof closed, wind 0 mph none

Final

Pirates 2
BLUE JAYS 5

Our Pick

PITTSBURGH PIRATES, narrowly

✗ Wrong

Projected: 3–3 Pittsburgh Pirates · Actual: 2–5 Blue Jays

51%

Consensus

— Simulation Breakdown —

Simulation Pick Pirates Blue Jays Projected Result
Baseline Toronto Blue Jays 36% 64% 3–4
Pitcher-weighted Pittsburgh Pirates 64% 36% 3–3
Platoon-weighted Pittsburgh Pirates 60% 40% 4–3
Pitcher + Platoon Pittsburgh Pirates 53% 47% 3–3
Logistic Toronto Blue Jays 46% 54%
Random Forest Pittsburgh Pirates 52% 48%
Consensus Pittsburgh Pirates 51% 49% 3–3
2 of 6 sims got it right — Baseline and Logistic caught what the others missed.

— How We've Done On These Teams —

Pirates this season

26–19

58% across 45 games

Blue Jays this season

20–25

44% across 45 games