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Tuesday · May 12 ✦

RAYS @ BLUE JAYS

Rogers Centre.

Final

RAYS 7
Blue Jays 6

Our Pick

TORONTO BLUE JAYS

✗ Wrong

Projected: 3–3 Toronto Blue Jays · Actual: 7–6 Rays

55%

Consensus

— Simulation Breakdown —

Simulation Pick Rays Blue Jays Projected Result
Baseline Toronto Blue Jays 42% 58% 3–4
Pitcher-weighted Tampa Bay Rays 56% 44% 3–2
Platoon-weighted Toronto Blue Jays 45% 55% 3–3
Pitcher + Platoon Toronto Blue Jays 35% 65% 2–3
Logistic Toronto Blue Jays 44% 56%
Random Forest Tampa Bay Rays 53% 47%
Consensus Toronto Blue Jays 45% 55% 3–3
2 of 6 sims got it right — Pitcher-weighted and Random Forest caught what the others missed.

— How We've Done On These Teams —

Rays this season

17–25

40% across 42 games

Blue Jays this season

20–25

44% across 45 games