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Sunday · July 12 · 1:40 PM ✦

MARINERS @ RAYS

Tropicana Field. · 72 degrees, dome, wind 0 mph none

Final

MARINERS 8
Rays 2

Our Pick

TAMPA BAY RAYS, narrowly

✗ Wrong

Projected: 3–4 Tampa Bay Rays · Actual: 8–2 Mariners

52%

Consensus

— Simulation Breakdown —

Simulation Pick Mariners Rays Projected Result
Baseline Tampa Bay Rays 49% 51% 4–4
Pitcher-weighted Tampa Bay Rays 49% 51% 3–4
Platoon-weighted Tampa Bay Rays 42% 58% 3–4
Pitcher + Platoon Seattle Mariners 56% 44% 3–3
Logistic Tampa Bay Rays 40% 60%
Random Forest Seattle Mariners 61% 39%
Consensus Tampa Bay Rays 48% 52% 3–4
2 of 6 sims got it right — Pitcher + Platoon and Random Forest caught what the others missed.

— How We've Done On These Teams —

Mariners this season

76–47

62% across 123 games

Rays this season

61–62

50% across 123 games