← Back to the recap

Monday · June 22 · 6:40 pm ✦

ROYALS @ RAYS

Tropicana Field. · 72 degrees, dome, wind 0 mph none

Final

ROYALS 2
Rays 1

Our Pick

TAMPA BAY RAYS, narrowly

✗ Wrong

Projected: 3–3 Tampa Bay Rays · Actual: 2–1 Royals

51%

Consensus

— Simulation Breakdown —

Simulation Pick Royals Rays Projected Result
Baseline Tampa Bay Rays 49% 51% 3–3 ✗
Pitcher-weighted Tampa Bay Rays 47% 53% 3–3 ✗
Platoon-weighted Kansas City Royals 53% 47% 3–3 ✓
Pitcher + Platoon Tampa Bay Rays 33% 67% 2–4 ✗
Logistic Kansas City Royals 57% 43% — ✓
Random Forest Kansas City Royals 52% 48% — ✓
Consensus Tampa Bay Rays 49% 51% 3–3 ✗
3 of 6 sims got it right.

— How We've Done On These Teams —

Royals this season

78–77

50% across 155 games

Rays this season

78–80

49% across 158 games