Saturday · May 16 · 4:10 PM ✦
MARLINS @ RAYS
Tropicana Field. · 72 degrees, dome, wind 0 mph none
Final
MARLINS
10
Rays
5
Our Pick
TAMPA BAY RAYS, narrowly
✗ WrongProjected: 3–3 Tampa Bay Rays · Actual: 10–5 Marlins
52%
Consensus
— Simulation Breakdown —
| Simulation | Pick | Marlins | Rays | Projected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline | Tampa Bay Rays | 47% | 53% | 3–3 | ✗ |
| Pitcher-weighted | Tampa Bay Rays | 42% | 58% | 3–3 | ✗ |
| Platoon-weighted | Tampa Bay Rays | 45% | 55% | 3–3 | ✗ |
| Pitcher + Platoon | Tampa Bay Rays | 42% | 56% | 2–3 | ✗ |
| Logistic | Miami Marlins | 51% | 49% | — | ✓ |
| Random Forest | Miami Marlins | 65% | 35% | — | ✓ |
| Consensus | Tampa Bay Rays | 48% | 52% | 3–3 | ✗ |
2 of 6 sims got it right — Logistic and Random Forest caught what the others missed.
— How We've Done On These Teams —
Marlins this season
29–17
63% across 46 games
Rays this season
17–25
40% across 42 games