Back to the recap

Wednesday · August 12 · 1:15 PM ✦

PHILLIES @ CARDINALS

Busch Stadium. · 94 degrees, overcast, wind 11 mph out to cf

Final

Phillies 1
CARDINALS 7

Our Pick

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES

✗ Wrong

Projected: 4–3 Philadelphia Phillies · Actual: 1–7 Cardinals

61%

Consensus

— Simulation Breakdown —

Simulation Pick Phillies Cardinals Projected Result
Baseline Philadelphia Phillies 64% 36% 4–3
Pitcher-weighted Philadelphia Phillies 71% 29% 4–2
Platoon-weighted Philadelphia Phillies 71% 29% 4–3
Pitcher + Platoon St. Louis Cardinals 49% 51% 3–3
Logistic Philadelphia Phillies 52% 48%
Random Forest Philadelphia Phillies 63% 37%
Consensus Philadelphia Phillies 61% 39% 4–3
1 of 6 sims got it right — Pitcher + Platoon caught what the others missed.

— How We've Done On These Teams —

Phillies this season

78–45

63% across 123 games

Cardinals this season

69–55

56% across 124 games