Back to the recap

Friday · May 1 · 7:15 pm ✦

DODGERS @ CARDINALS

Busch Stadium. · 62 degrees, partly cloudy, wind 3 mph in from lf

Final

Dodgers 2
CARDINALS 7

Our Pick

LOS ANGELES DODGERS, narrowly

✗ Wrong

Projected: 5–3 Los Angeles Dodgers · Actual: 2–7 Cardinals

54%

Consensus

— Simulation Breakdown —

Simulation Pick Dodgers Cardinals Projected Result
Baseline Los Angeles Dodgers 65% 35% 4–3
Pitcher-weighted Los Angeles Dodgers 55% 45% 4–3
Platoon-weighted Los Angeles Dodgers 56% 44% 5–3
Pitcher + Platoon Los Angeles Dodgers 67% 33% 5–3
Logistic St. Louis Cardinals 48% 52%
Random Forest St. Louis Cardinals 40% 60%
Consensus Los Angeles Dodgers 54% 46% 5–3
2 of 6 sims got it right — Logistic and Random Forest caught what the others missed.

— How We've Done On These Teams —

Dodgers this season

24–21

53% across 45 games

Cardinals this season

28–18

61% across 46 games