Back to the recap

Saturday · May 16 · 4:17 PM ✦

PADRES @ MARINERS

T-Mobile Park. · 57 degrees, roof closed, wind 0 mph calm

Final

PADRES 7
Mariners 4

Our Pick

SEATTLE MARINERS, narrowly

✗ Wrong

Projected: 4–3 Seattle Mariners · Actual: 7–4 Padres

50%

Consensus

— Simulation Breakdown —

Simulation Pick Padres Mariners Projected Result
Baseline San Diego Padres 53% 47% 4–3
Pitcher-weighted Seattle Mariners 47% 53% 3–4
Platoon-weighted San Diego Padres 56% 44% 4–3
Pitcher + Platoon Seattle Mariners 45% 55% 3–4
Logistic Seattle Mariners 50% 50%
Random Forest Seattle Mariners 44% 56%
Consensus Seattle Mariners 50% 50% 4–3
2 of 6 sims got it right — Baseline and Platoon-weighted caught what the others missed.

— How We've Done On These Teams —

Padres this season

31–12

72% across 43 games

Mariners this season

28–17

62% across 45 games