← Back to the recap

Monday · August 10 ✦

BREWERS @ PADRES

Petco Park.

Final

Brewers 2
PADRES 3

Our Pick

MILWAUKEE BREWERS, narrowly

✗ Wrong

Projected: 4–3 Milwaukee Brewers · Actual: 2–3 Padres

51%

Consensus

— Simulation Breakdown —

Simulation Pick Brewers Padres Projected Result
Baseline San Diego Padres 47% 53% 4–4 ✓
Pitcher-weighted Milwaukee Brewers 60% 40% 3–3 ✗
Platoon-weighted San Diego Padres 38% 62% 3–4 ✓
Pitcher + Platoon Milwaukee Brewers 64% 36% 4–3 ✗
Logistic Milwaukee Brewers 51% 49% — ✗
Random Forest San Diego Padres 46% 54% — ✓
Consensus Milwaukee Brewers 51% 49% 4–3 ✗
3 of 6 sims got it right.

— How We've Done On These Teams —

Brewers this season

92–67

58% across 159 games

Padres this season

97–63

61% across 160 games