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Tuesday · May 26 ✦

PHILLIES @ PADRES

Petco Park.

Final

PHILLIES 4
Padres 3

Our Pick

SAN DIEGO PADRES, narrowly

✗ Wrong

Projected: 4–4 San Diego Padres · Actual: 4–3 Phillies

53%

Consensus

— Simulation Breakdown —

Simulation Pick Phillies Padres Projected Result
Baseline San Diego Padres 42% 58% 4–4
Pitcher-weighted San Diego Padres 47% 53% 4–5
Platoon-weighted Philadelphia Phillies 55% 45% 5–4
Pitcher + Platoon Philadelphia Phillies 64% 36% 4–4
Logistic San Diego Padres 38% 62%
Random Forest San Diego Padres 35% 65%
Consensus San Diego Padres 47% 53% 4–4
2 of 6 sims got it right — Platoon-weighted and Pitcher + Platoon caught what the others missed.

— How We've Done On These Teams —

Phillies this season

56–31

64% across 87 games

Padres this season

55–30

65% across 85 games