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Tuesday · May 19 ✦

DODGERS @ PADRES

Petco Park.

Final

DODGERS 5
Padres 4

Our Pick

SAN DIEGO PADRES, narrowly

✗ Wrong

Projected: 4–4 San Diego Padres · Actual: 5–4 Dodgers

51%

Consensus

— Simulation Breakdown —

Simulation Pick Dodgers Padres Projected Result
Baseline Los Angeles Dodgers 56% 44% 5–4
Pitcher-weighted San Diego Padres 42% 58% 3–4
Platoon-weighted San Diego Padres 47% 53% 4–4
Pitcher + Platoon Los Angeles Dodgers 65% 35% 3–3
Logistic San Diego Padres 43% 57%
Random Forest San Diego Padres 37% 63%
Consensus San Diego Padres 49% 51% 4–4
2 of 6 sims got it right — Baseline and Pitcher + Platoon caught what the others missed.

— How We've Done On These Teams —

Dodgers this season

23–21

52% across 44 games

Padres this season

31–12

72% across 43 games