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Friday · May 15 · 6:41 PM ✦

PHILLIES @ PIRATES

PNC Park. · 66 degrees, partly cloudy, wind 6 mph out to cf

Final

PHILLIES 11
Pirates 9

Our Pick

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES, narrowly

✓ Correct

Projected: 4–4 Philadelphia Phillies · Actual: 11–9 Phillies

53%

Consensus

— Simulation Breakdown —

Simulation Pick Phillies Pirates Projected Result
Baseline Pittsburgh Pirates 45% 55% 4–4
Pitcher-weighted Pittsburgh Pirates 49% 51% 3–3
Platoon-weighted Philadelphia Phillies 65% 35% 5–4
Pitcher + Platoon Philadelphia Phillies 56% 44% 4–3
Logistic Philadelphia Phillies 54% 46%
Random Forest Pittsburgh Pirates 40% 60%
Consensus Philadelphia Phillies 53% 47% 4–4
3 of 6 sims got it right.

— How We've Done On These Teams —

Phillies this season

30–15

67% across 45 games

Pirates this season

26–19

58% across 45 games