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Sunday · May 3 · 1:37 PM ✦

REDS @ PIRATES

PNC Park. · 56 degrees, partly cloudy, wind 13 mph out to lf

Final

Reds 0
PIRATES 1

Our Pick

CINCINNATI REDS, narrowly

✗ Wrong

Projected: 4–3 Cincinnati Reds · Actual: 0–1 Pirates

53%

Consensus

— Simulation Breakdown —

Simulation Pick Reds Pirates Projected Result
Baseline Cincinnati Reds 60% 40% 4–3
Pitcher-weighted Pittsburgh Pirates 45% 55% 3–3
Platoon-weighted Cincinnati Reds 51% 49% 4–3
Pitcher + Platoon Cincinnati Reds 53% 47% 4–4
Logistic Pittsburgh Pirates 49% 51%
Random Forest Cincinnati Reds 58% 42%
Consensus Cincinnati Reds 53% 47% 4–3
2 of 6 sims got it right — Pitcher-weighted and Logistic caught what the others missed.

— How We've Done On These Teams —

Reds this season

30–15

67% across 45 games

Pirates this season

26–19

58% across 45 games