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Friday · May 1 · 6:45 pm ✦

REDS @ PIRATES

PNC Park. · 53 degrees, cloudy, wind 10 mph out to cf

Final

Reds 1
PIRATES 9

Our Pick

CINCINNATI REDS, narrowly

✗ Wrong

Projected: 4–4 Cincinnati Reds · Actual: 1–9 Pirates

52%

Consensus

— Simulation Breakdown —

Simulation Pick Reds Pirates Projected Result
Baseline Cincinnati Reds 60% 40% 4–3
Pitcher-weighted Cincinnati Reds 69% 31% 5–3
Platoon-weighted Pittsburgh Pirates 44% 56% 3–4
Pitcher + Platoon Cincinnati Reds 53% 47% 4–3
Logistic Cincinnati Reds 52% 48%
Random Forest Pittsburgh Pirates 38% 62%
Consensus Cincinnati Reds 52% 48% 4–4
2 of 6 sims got it right — Platoon-weighted and Random Forest caught what the others missed.

— How We've Done On These Teams —

Reds this season

30–16

65% across 46 games

Pirates this season

26–21

55% across 47 games