Friday · May 1 · 6:45 pm ✦
REDS @ PIRATES
PNC Park. · 53 degrees, cloudy, wind 10 mph out to cf
Final
Reds
1
PIRATES
9
Our Pick
CINCINNATI REDS, narrowly
✗ WrongProjected: 4–4 Cincinnati Reds · Actual: 1–9 Pirates
52%
Consensus
— Simulation Breakdown —
| Simulation | Pick | Reds | Pirates | Projected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline | Cincinnati Reds | 60% | 40% | 4–3 | ✗ |
| Pitcher-weighted | Cincinnati Reds | 69% | 31% | 5–3 | ✗ |
| Platoon-weighted | Pittsburgh Pirates | 44% | 56% | 3–4 | ✓ |
| Pitcher + Platoon | Cincinnati Reds | 53% | 47% | 4–3 | ✗ |
| Logistic | Cincinnati Reds | 52% | 48% | — | ✗ |
| Random Forest | Pittsburgh Pirates | 38% | 62% | — | ✓ |
| Consensus | Cincinnati Reds | 52% | 48% | 4–4 | ✗ |
2 of 6 sims got it right — Platoon-weighted and Random Forest caught what the others missed.
— How We've Done On These Teams —
Reds this season
30–16
65% across 46 games
Pirates this season
26–21
55% across 47 games