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Thursday · April 30 · 12:38 PM ✦

CARDINALS @ PIRATES

PNC Park. · 46 degrees, partly cloudy, wind 11 mph out to cf

Final

CARDINALS 10
Pirates 5

Our Pick

PITTSBURGH PIRATES, narrowly

✗ Wrong

Projected: 3–4 Pittsburgh Pirates · Actual: 10–5 Cardinals

51%

Consensus

— Simulation Breakdown —

Simulation Pick Cardinals Pirates Projected Result
Baseline Pittsburgh Pirates 47% 53% 3–3
Pitcher-weighted Pittsburgh Pirates 33% 67% 2–3
Platoon-weighted St. Louis Cardinals 55% 45% 4–3
Pitcher + Platoon Pittsburgh Pirates 25% 73% 3–4
Logistic Pittsburgh Pirates 47% 53%
Random Forest St. Louis Cardinals 77% 23%
Consensus Pittsburgh Pirates 49% 51% 3–4
2 of 6 sims got it right — Platoon-weighted and Random Forest caught what the others missed.

— How We've Done On These Teams —

Cardinals this season

28–18

61% across 46 games

Pirates this season

26–21

55% across 47 games