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Thursday · April 16 · 12:37 PM ✦

NATIONALS @ PIRATES

PNC Park. · 75 degrees, partly cloudy, wind 13 mph out to lf

Final

NATIONALS 8
Pirates 7

Our Pick

PITTSBURGH PIRATES

✗ Wrong

Projected: 2–4 Pittsburgh Pirates · Actual: 8–7 Nationals

55%

Consensus

— Simulation Breakdown —

Simulation Pick Nationals Pirates Projected Result
Baseline Pittsburgh Pirates 44% 56% 3–3
Pitcher-weighted Pittsburgh Pirates 27% 73% 2–5
Platoon-weighted Pittsburgh Pirates 40% 60% 3–4
Pitcher + Platoon Pittsburgh Pirates 24% 76% 2–4
Logistic Washington Nationals 58% 42%
Random Forest Washington Nationals 64% 36%
Consensus Pittsburgh Pirates 45% 55% 2–4
2 of 6 sims got it right — Logistic and Random Forest caught what the others missed.

— How We've Done On These Teams —

Nationals this season

27–20

57% across 47 games

Pirates this season

26–21

55% across 47 games