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Friday · August 7 · 6:40 pm ✦

BLUE JAYS @ PHILLIES

Citizens Bank Park. · 89 degrees, partly cloudy, wind 8 mph out to cf

Final

BLUE JAYS 5
Phillies 4

Our Pick

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES, narrowly

✗ Wrong

Projected: 3–4 Philadelphia Phillies · Actual: 5–4 Blue Jays

52%

Consensus

— Simulation Breakdown —

Simulation Pick Blue Jays Phillies Projected Result
Baseline Philadelphia Phillies 49% 51% 3–4
Pitcher-weighted Philadelphia Phillies 49% 51% 4–4
Platoon-weighted Toronto Blue Jays 56% 44% 4–3
Pitcher + Platoon Philadelphia Phillies 44% 56% 3–4
Logistic Philadelphia Phillies 48% 52%
Random Forest Philadelphia Phillies 33% 67%
Consensus Philadelphia Phillies 48% 52% 3–4
1 of 6 sims got it right — Platoon-weighted caught what the others missed.

— How We've Done On These Teams —

Blue Jays this season

61–63

49% across 124 games

Phillies this season

78–45

63% across 123 games