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Thursday · July 2 · 12:35 PM ✦

PIRATES @ PHILLIES

Citizens Bank Park. · 98 degrees, partly cloudy, wind 8 mph out to rf

Final

PIRATES 6
Phillies 1

Our Pick

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES

✗ Wrong

Projected: 3–3 Philadelphia Phillies · Actual: 6–1 Pirates

57%

Consensus

— Simulation Breakdown —

Simulation Pick Pirates Phillies Projected Result
Baseline Philadelphia Phillies 38% 62% 3–3
Pitcher-weighted Pittsburgh Pirates 51% 49% 3–3
Platoon-weighted Philadelphia Phillies 40% 60% 4–4
Pitcher + Platoon Philadelphia Phillies 45% 55% 3–3
Logistic Philadelphia Phillies 47% 53%
Random Forest Philadelphia Phillies 34% 66%
Consensus Philadelphia Phillies 43% 57% 3–3
1 of 6 sims got it right — Pitcher-weighted caught what the others missed.

— How We've Done On These Teams —

Pirates this season

45–40

53% across 85 games

Phillies this season

55–30

65% across 85 games