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Tuesday · June 30 · 6:40 pm ✦

PIRATES @ PHILLIES

Citizens Bank Park. · 89 degrees, partly cloudy, wind 14 mph out to cf

Final

Pirates 0
PHILLIES 8

Our Pick

PITTSBURGH PIRATES, narrowly

✗ Wrong

Projected: 3–4 Pittsburgh Pirates · Actual: 0–8 Phillies

52%

Consensus

— Simulation Breakdown —

Simulation Pick Pirates Phillies Projected Result
Baseline Pittsburgh Pirates 51% 49% 3–4
Pitcher-weighted Pittsburgh Pirates 60% 40% 3–3
Platoon-weighted Philadelphia Phillies 49% 51% 4–4
Pitcher + Platoon Philadelphia Phillies 49% 51% 3–3
Logistic Pittsburgh Pirates 51% 49%
Random Forest Pittsburgh Pirates 53% 47%
Consensus Pittsburgh Pirates 52% 48% 3–4
2 of 6 sims got it right — Platoon-weighted and Pitcher + Platoon caught what the others missed.

— How We've Done On These Teams —

Pirates this season

45–40

53% across 85 games

Phillies this season

55–30

65% across 85 games