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Wednesday · July 1 · 6:40 pm ✦

PIRATES @ PHILLIES

Citizens Bank Park. · 95 degrees, partly cloudy, wind 11 mph out to cf

Final

Pirates 6
PHILLIES 10

Our Pick

PITTSBURGH PIRATES, narrowly

✗ Wrong

Projected: 4–3 Pittsburgh Pirates · Actual: 6–10 Phillies

54%

Consensus

— Simulation Breakdown —

Simulation Pick Pirates Phillies Projected Result
Baseline Pittsburgh Pirates 53% 47% 4–4
Pitcher-weighted Pittsburgh Pirates 67% 33% 4–2
Platoon-weighted Pittsburgh Pirates 64% 36% 5–3
Pitcher + Platoon Pittsburgh Pirates 51% 49% 4–3
Logistic Philadelphia Phillies 47% 53%
Random Forest Philadelphia Phillies 39% 61%
Consensus Pittsburgh Pirates 54% 46% 4–3
2 of 6 sims got it right — Logistic and Random Forest caught what the others missed.

— How We've Done On These Teams —

Pirates this season

45–40

53% across 85 games

Phillies this season

55–30

65% across 85 games