Wednesday · July 1 · 6:40 pm ✦
PIRATES @ PHILLIES
Citizens Bank Park. · 95 degrees, partly cloudy, wind 11 mph out to cf
Final
Pirates
6
PHILLIES
10
Our Pick
PITTSBURGH PIRATES, narrowly
✗ WrongProjected: 4–3 Pittsburgh Pirates · Actual: 6–10 Phillies
54%
Consensus
— Simulation Breakdown —
| Simulation | Pick | Pirates | Phillies | Projected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline | Pittsburgh Pirates | 53% | 47% | 4–4 | ✗ |
| Pitcher-weighted | Pittsburgh Pirates | 67% | 33% | 4–2 | ✗ |
| Platoon-weighted | Pittsburgh Pirates | 64% | 36% | 5–3 | ✗ |
| Pitcher + Platoon | Pittsburgh Pirates | 51% | 49% | 4–3 | ✗ |
| Logistic | Philadelphia Phillies | 47% | 53% | — | ✓ |
| Random Forest | Philadelphia Phillies | 39% | 61% | — | ✓ |
| Consensus | Pittsburgh Pirates | 54% | 46% | 4–3 | ✗ |
2 of 6 sims got it right — Logistic and Random Forest caught what the others missed.
— How We've Done On These Teams —
Pirates this season
85–70
55% across 155 games
Phillies this season
94–64
59% across 158 games