Back to the recap

Thursday · June 4 · 1:06 PM ✦

PADRES @ PHILLIES

Citizens Bank Park. · 87 degrees, sunny, wind 7 mph l to r

Final

Padres 4
PHILLIES 6

Our Pick

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES

✓ Correct

Projected: 3–4 Philadelphia Phillies · Actual: 4–6 Phillies

56%

Consensus

— Simulation Breakdown —

Simulation Pick Padres Phillies Projected Result
Baseline Philadelphia Phillies 40% 60% 3–4
Pitcher-weighted Philadelphia Phillies 44% 56% 3–4
Platoon-weighted Philadelphia Phillies 49% 51% 3–4
Pitcher + Platoon Philadelphia Phillies 36% 64% 3–4
Logistic Philadelphia Phillies 46% 54%
Random Forest Philadelphia Phillies 47% 53%
Consensus Philadelphia Phillies 44% 56% 3–4
All 6 sims got it right.

— How We've Done On These Teams —

Padres this season

54–30

64% across 84 games

Phillies this season

56–30

65% across 86 games