Back to the recap

Wednesday · May 20 · 1:06 PM ✦

REDS @ PHILLIES

Citizens Bank Park. · 92 degrees, sunny, wind 11 mph out to rf

Final

REDS 9
Phillies 4

Our Pick

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES

✗ Wrong

Projected: 3–4 Philadelphia Phillies · Actual: 9–4 Reds

55%

Consensus

— Simulation Breakdown —

Simulation Pick Reds Phillies Projected Result
Baseline Cincinnati Reds 56% 44% 4–4
Pitcher-weighted Philadelphia Phillies 35% 65% 3–4
Platoon-weighted Philadelphia Phillies 49% 51% 4–4
Pitcher + Platoon Philadelphia Phillies 47% 53% 3–4
Logistic Philadelphia Phillies 48% 52%
Random Forest Philadelphia Phillies 26% 74%
Consensus Philadelphia Phillies 45% 55% 3–4
1 of 6 sims got it right — Baseline caught what the others missed.

— How We've Done On These Teams —

Reds this season

30–15

67% across 45 games

Phillies this season

30–15

67% across 45 games