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Tuesday · May 19 ✦

REDS @ PHILLIES

Citizens Bank Park.

Final

REDS 4
Phillies 1

Our Pick

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES, narrowly

✗ Wrong

Projected: 4–4 Philadelphia Phillies · Actual: 4–1 Reds

53%

Consensus

— Simulation Breakdown —

Simulation Pick Reds Phillies Projected Result
Baseline Philadelphia Phillies 49% 51% 4–4
Pitcher-weighted Cincinnati Reds 56% 44% 4–4
Platoon-weighted Philadelphia Phillies 49% 51% 4–4
Pitcher + Platoon Cincinnati Reds 53% 47% 4–4
Logistic Philadelphia Phillies 40% 60%
Random Forest Philadelphia Phillies 25% 75%
Consensus Philadelphia Phillies 47% 53% 4–4
2 of 6 sims got it right — Pitcher-weighted and Pitcher + Platoon caught what the others missed.

— How We've Done On These Teams —

Reds this season

30–15

67% across 45 games

Phillies this season

30–15

67% across 45 games