Tuesday · May 19 ✦
REDS @ PHILLIES
Citizens Bank Park.
Final
REDS
4
Phillies
1
Our Pick
PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES, narrowly
✗ WrongProjected: 4–4 Philadelphia Phillies · Actual: 4–1 Reds
53%
Consensus
— Simulation Breakdown —
| Simulation | Pick | Reds | Phillies | Projected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline | Philadelphia Phillies | 49% | 51% | 4–4 | ✗ |
| Pitcher-weighted | Cincinnati Reds | 56% | 44% | 4–4 | ✓ |
| Platoon-weighted | Philadelphia Phillies | 49% | 51% | 4–4 | ✗ |
| Pitcher + Platoon | Cincinnati Reds | 53% | 47% | 4–4 | ✓ |
| Logistic | Philadelphia Phillies | 40% | 60% | — | ✗ |
| Random Forest | Philadelphia Phillies | 25% | 75% | — | ✗ |
| Consensus | Philadelphia Phillies | 47% | 53% | 4–4 | ✗ |
2 of 6 sims got it right — Pitcher-weighted and Pitcher + Platoon caught what the others missed.
— How We've Done On These Teams —
Reds this season
30–15
67% across 45 games
Phillies this season
30–15
67% across 45 games