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Wednesday · April 15 · 6:40 pm ✦

CUBS @ PHILLIES

Citizens Bank Park. · 89 degrees, partly cloudy, wind 10 mph out to cf

Final

CUBS 11
Phillies 2

Our Pick

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES, narrowly

✗ Wrong

Projected: 4–4 Philadelphia Phillies · Actual: 11–2 Cubs

51%

Consensus

— Simulation Breakdown —

Simulation Pick Cubs Phillies Projected Result
Baseline Chicago Cubs 51% 49% 4–4
Pitcher-weighted Philadelphia Phillies 45% 55% 4–4
Platoon-weighted Philadelphia Phillies 47% 53% 4–4
Pitcher + Platoon Philadelphia Phillies 45% 55% 3–4
Logistic Philadelphia Phillies 49% 51%
Random Forest Chicago Cubs 53% 47%
Consensus Philadelphia Phillies 49% 51% 4–4
2 of 6 sims got it right — Baseline and Random Forest caught what the others missed.

— How We've Done On These Teams —

Cubs this season

21–26

45% across 47 games

Phillies this season

31–15

67% across 46 games