Wednesday · April 15 · 6:40 pm ✦
CUBS @ PHILLIES
Citizens Bank Park. · 89 degrees, partly cloudy, wind 10 mph out to cf
Final
CUBS
11
Phillies
2
Our Pick
PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES, narrowly
✗ WrongProjected: 4–4 Philadelphia Phillies · Actual: 11–2 Cubs
51%
Consensus
— Simulation Breakdown —
| Simulation | Pick | Cubs | Phillies | Projected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline | Chicago Cubs | 51% | 49% | 4–4 | ✓ |
| Pitcher-weighted | Philadelphia Phillies | 45% | 55% | 4–4 | ✗ |
| Platoon-weighted | Philadelphia Phillies | 47% | 53% | 4–4 | ✗ |
| Pitcher + Platoon | Philadelphia Phillies | 45% | 55% | 3–4 | ✗ |
| Logistic | Philadelphia Phillies | 49% | 51% | — | ✗ |
| Random Forest | Chicago Cubs | 53% | 47% | — | ✓ |
| Consensus | Philadelphia Phillies | 49% | 51% | 4–4 | ✗ |
2 of 6 sims got it right — Baseline and Random Forest caught what the others missed.
— How We've Done On These Teams —
Cubs this season
21–26
45% across 47 games
Phillies this season
31–15
67% across 46 games