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Friday · July 24 · 7:10 pm ✦

DODGERS @ METS

Citi Field. · 77 degrees, partly cloudy, wind 9 mph out to lf

Final

DODGERS 4
Mets 2

Our Pick

NEW YORK METS, narrowly

✗ Wrong

Projected: 4–4 New York Mets · Actual: 4–2 Dodgers

51%

Consensus

— Simulation Breakdown —

Simulation Pick Dodgers Mets Projected Result
Baseline New York Mets 47% 53% 4–4
Pitcher-weighted New York Mets 49% 51% 5–4
Platoon-weighted New York Mets 44% 56% 4–4
Pitcher + Platoon Los Angeles Dodgers 51% 49% 4–4
Logistic New York Mets 47% 53%
Random Forest Los Angeles Dodgers 59% 41%
Consensus New York Mets 49% 51% 4–4
2 of 6 sims got it right — Pitcher + Platoon and Random Forest caught what the others missed.

— How We've Done On These Teams —

Dodgers this season

75–46

62% across 121 games

Mets this season

68–55

55% across 123 games