Back to the recap

Sunday · June 28 · 1:41 PM ✦

PHILLIES @ METS

Citi Field. · 82 degrees, partly cloudy, wind 4 mph in from rf

Final

PHILLIES 5
Mets 4

Our Pick

NEW YORK METS, narrowly

✗ Wrong

Projected: 4–4 New York Mets · Actual: 5–4 Phillies

54%

Consensus

— Simulation Breakdown —

Simulation Pick Phillies Mets Projected Result
Baseline New York Mets 42% 58% 4–4
Pitcher-weighted Philadelphia Phillies 51% 49% 4–4
Platoon-weighted New York Mets 44% 56% 3–4
Pitcher + Platoon Philadelphia Phillies 55% 45% 4–4
Logistic New York Mets 48% 52%
Random Forest New York Mets 28% 72%
Consensus New York Mets 46% 54% 4–4
2 of 6 sims got it right — Pitcher-weighted and Pitcher + Platoon caught what the others missed.

— How We've Done On These Teams —

Phillies this season

55–30

65% across 85 games

Mets this season

48–37

56% across 85 games