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Thursday · April 30 · 1:10 PM ✦

NATIONALS @ METS

Citi Field. · 54 degrees, cloudy, wind 4 mph out to rf

Final

NATIONALS 5
Mets 4

Our Pick

NEW YORK METS, narrowly

✗ Wrong

Projected: 3–4 New York Mets · Actual: 5–4 Nationals

52%

Consensus

— Simulation Breakdown —

Simulation Pick Nationals Mets Projected Result
Baseline New York Mets 38% 62% 3–4
Pitcher-weighted New York Mets 45% 55% 3–4
Platoon-weighted New York Mets 38% 62% 3–4
Pitcher + Platoon New York Mets 33% 67% 3–4
Logistic Washington Nationals 56% 44%
Random Forest Washington Nationals 67% 33%
Consensus New York Mets 48% 52% 3–4
2 of 6 sims got it right — Logistic and Random Forest caught what the others missed.

— How We've Done On These Teams —

Nationals this season

27–20

57% across 47 games

Mets this season

28–18

61% across 46 games