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Sunday · August 16 · 1:12 PM ✦

PHILLIES @ TWINS

Target Field. · 79 degrees, partly cloudy, wind 12 mph out to cf

Final

PHILLIES 7
Twins 5

Our Pick

MINNESOTA TWINS, narrowly

✗ Wrong

Projected: 4–4 Minnesota Twins · Actual: 7–5 Phillies

50%

Consensus

— Simulation Breakdown —

Simulation Pick Phillies Twins Projected Result
Baseline Philadelphia Phillies 55% 45% 4–4
Pitcher-weighted Minnesota Twins 45% 55% 4–4
Platoon-weighted Minnesota Twins 49% 51% 4–4
Pitcher + Platoon Minnesota Twins 49% 51% 4–4
Logistic Philadelphia Phillies 55% 45%
Random Forest Minnesota Twins 37% 63%
Consensus Minnesota Twins 50% 50% 4–4
2 of 6 sims got it right — Baseline and Logistic caught what the others missed.

— How We've Done On These Teams —

Phillies this season

78–44

64% across 122 games

Twins this season

63–59

52% across 122 games