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Friday · May 1 · 7:10 pm ✦

BLUE JAYS @ TWINS

Target Field. · 53 degrees, partly cloudy, wind 7 mph out to rf

Final

BLUE JAYS 7
Twins 3

Our Pick

MINNESOTA TWINS, narrowly

✗ Wrong

Projected: 3–3 Minnesota Twins · Actual: 7–3 Blue Jays

52%

Consensus

— Simulation Breakdown —

Simulation Pick Blue Jays Twins Projected Result
Baseline Toronto Blue Jays 64% 36% 4–3
Pitcher-weighted Minnesota Twins 44% 56% 3–4
Platoon-weighted Toronto Blue Jays 53% 47% 3–3
Pitcher + Platoon Minnesota Twins 38% 62% 3–4
Logistic Minnesota Twins 47% 53%
Random Forest Minnesota Twins 43% 57%
Consensus Minnesota Twins 48% 52% 3–3
2 of 6 sims got it right — Baseline and Platoon-weighted caught what the others missed.

— How We've Done On These Teams —

Blue Jays this season

20–26

43% across 46 games

Twins this season

23–24

49% across 47 games