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Saturday · May 2 · 1:11 PM ✦

BLUE JAYS @ TWINS

Target Field. · 60 degrees, partly cloudy, wind 8 mph out to lf

Final

BLUE JAYS 11
Twins 4

Our Pick

MINNESOTA TWINS, narrowly

✗ Wrong

Projected: 3–4 Minnesota Twins · Actual: 11–4 Blue Jays

54%

Consensus

— Simulation Breakdown —

Simulation Pick Blue Jays Twins Projected Result
Baseline Minnesota Twins 44% 56% 3–3
Pitcher-weighted Minnesota Twins 36% 64% 2–3
Platoon-weighted Minnesota Twins 40% 60% 3–4
Pitcher + Platoon Minnesota Twins 38% 62% 3–3
Logistic Minnesota Twins 45% 55%
Random Forest Toronto Blue Jays 66% 34%
Consensus Minnesota Twins 46% 54% 3–4
1 of 6 sims got it right — Random Forest caught what the others missed.

— How We've Done On These Teams —

Blue Jays this season

20–25

44% across 45 games

Twins this season

23–22

51% across 45 games