← Back to the recap

Monday · April 27 · 6:40 pm ✦

MARINERS @ TWINS

Target Field. · 56 degrees, overcast, wind 14 mph out to rf

Final

Mariners 4
TWINS 11

Our Pick

MINNESOTA TWINS, narrowly

✓ Correct

Projected: 4–4 Minnesota Twins · Actual: 4–11 Twins

53%

Consensus

— Simulation Breakdown —

Simulation Pick Mariners Twins Projected Result
Baseline Seattle Mariners 55% 45% 4–3 ✗
Pitcher-weighted Minnesota Twins 40% 60% 3–4 ✓
Platoon-weighted Seattle Mariners 55% 45% 4–4 ✗
Pitcher + Platoon Seattle Mariners 60% 38% 4–3 ✗
Logistic Minnesota Twins 42% 58% — ✓
Random Forest Minnesota Twins 33% 67% — ✓
Consensus Minnesota Twins 46% 53% 4–4 ✓
3 of 6 sims got it right.

— How We've Done On These Teams —

Mariners this season

87–67

56% across 154 games

Twins this season

83–72

54% across 155 games