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Thursday · August 13 · 1:10 PM ✦

PIRATES @ MARLINS

loanDepot park. · 72 degrees, roof closed, wind 0 mph none

Final

PIRATES 13
Marlins 1

Our Pick

MIAMI MARLINS, narrowly

✗ Wrong

Projected: 3–3 Miami Marlins · Actual: 13–1 Pirates

51%

Consensus

— Simulation Breakdown —

Simulation Pick Pirates Marlins Projected Result
Baseline Miami Marlins 47% 53% 2–2
Pitcher-weighted Miami Marlins 47% 53% 3–3
Platoon-weighted Pittsburgh Pirates 53% 47% 3–3
Pitcher + Platoon Miami Marlins 36% 64% 2–3
Logistic Miami Marlins 49% 51%
Random Forest Pittsburgh Pirates 67% 33%
Consensus Miami Marlins 49% 51% 3–3
2 of 6 sims got it right — Platoon-weighted and Random Forest caught what the others missed.

— How We've Done On These Teams —

Pirates this season

68–56

55% across 124 games

Marlins this season

67–56

54% across 123 games