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Wednesday · July 29 · 12:10 PM ✦

PHILLIES @ MARLINS

loanDepot park. · 72 degrees, roof closed, wind 0 mph none

Final

Phillies 6
MARLINS 8

Our Pick

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES, narrowly

✗ Wrong

Projected: 4–3 Philadelphia Phillies · Actual: 6–8 Marlins

50%

Consensus

— Simulation Breakdown —

Simulation Pick Phillies Marlins Projected Result
Baseline Philadelphia Phillies 58% 42% 4–3
Pitcher-weighted Philadelphia Phillies 51% 49% 4–4
Platoon-weighted Philadelphia Phillies 51% 49% 4–3
Pitcher + Platoon Miami Marlins 47% 53% 4–3
Logistic Philadelphia Phillies 53% 47%
Random Forest Miami Marlins 32% 68%
Consensus Philadelphia Phillies 50% 50% 4–3
2 of 6 sims got it right — Pitcher + Platoon and Random Forest caught what the others missed.

— How We've Done On These Teams —

Phillies this season

78–45

63% across 123 games

Marlins this season

67–56

54% across 123 games