Wednesday · July 29 · 12:10 PM ✦
PHILLIES @ MARLINS
loanDepot park. · 72 degrees, roof closed, wind 0 mph none
Final
Phillies
6
MARLINS
8
Our Pick
PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES, narrowly
✗ WrongProjected: 4–3 Philadelphia Phillies · Actual: 6–8 Marlins
50%
Consensus
— Simulation Breakdown —
| Simulation | Pick | Phillies | Marlins | Projected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline | Philadelphia Phillies | 58% | 42% | 4–3 | ✗ |
| Pitcher-weighted | Philadelphia Phillies | 51% | 49% | 4–4 | ✗ |
| Platoon-weighted | Philadelphia Phillies | 51% | 49% | 4–3 | ✗ |
| Pitcher + Platoon | Miami Marlins | 47% | 53% | 4–3 | ✓ |
| Logistic | Philadelphia Phillies | 53% | 47% | — | ✗ |
| Random Forest | Miami Marlins | 32% | 68% | — | ✓ |
| Consensus | Philadelphia Phillies | 50% | 50% | 4–3 | ✗ |
2 of 6 sims got it right — Pitcher + Platoon and Random Forest caught what the others missed.
— How We've Done On These Teams —
Phillies this season
94–64
59% across 158 games
Marlins this season
81–74
52% across 155 games