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Tuesday · July 7 · 6:40 pm ✦

MARINERS @ MARLINS

loanDepot park. · 72 degrees, roof closed, wind 0 mph none

Final

Mariners 5
MARLINS 6

Our Pick

SEATTLE MARINERS, narrowly

✗ Wrong

Projected: 4–3 Seattle Mariners · Actual: 5–6 Marlins

53%

Consensus

— Simulation Breakdown —

Simulation Pick Mariners Marlins Projected Result
Baseline Seattle Mariners 65% 35% 4–3
Pitcher-weighted Seattle Mariners 51% 49% 4–3
Platoon-weighted Miami Marlins 47% 53% 4–3
Pitcher + Platoon Seattle Mariners 55% 45% 4–3
Logistic Seattle Mariners 52% 48%
Random Forest Miami Marlins 40% 60%
Consensus Seattle Mariners 53% 47% 4–3
2 of 6 sims got it right — Platoon-weighted and Random Forest caught what the others missed.

— How We've Done On These Teams —

Mariners this season

54–30

64% across 84 games

Marlins this season

45–40

53% across 85 games