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Saturday · May 2 · 4:11 PM ✦

PHILLIES @ MARLINS

loanDepot park. · 72 degrees, roof closed, wind 0 mph none

Final

Phillies 0
MARLINS 4

Our Pick

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES, narrowly

✗ Wrong

Projected: 4–3 Philadelphia Phillies · Actual: 0–4 Marlins

53%

Consensus

— Simulation Breakdown —

Simulation Pick Phillies Marlins Projected Result
Baseline Philadelphia Phillies 62% 36% 4–3
Pitcher-weighted Philadelphia Phillies 67% 33% 5–3
Platoon-weighted Philadelphia Phillies 58% 42% 4–3
Pitcher + Platoon Philadelphia Phillies 62% 38% 4–3
Logistic Philadelphia Phillies 51% 49%
Random Forest Miami Marlins 27% 73%
Consensus Philadelphia Phillies 53% 47% 4–3
1 of 6 sims got it right — Random Forest caught what the others missed.

— How We've Done On These Teams —

Phillies this season

30–15

67% across 45 games

Marlins this season

29–17

63% across 46 games