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Friday · May 1 · 7:10 pm ✦

PHILLIES @ MARLINS

loanDepot park. · 72 degrees, roof closed, wind 0 mph none

Final

PHILLIES 6
Marlins 5

Our Pick

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES

✓ Correct

Projected: 4–3 Philadelphia Phillies · Actual: 6–5 Phillies

60%

Consensus

— Simulation Breakdown —

Simulation Pick Phillies Marlins Projected Result
Baseline Philadelphia Phillies 65% 35% 4–3
Pitcher-weighted Philadelphia Phillies 62% 38% 4–3
Platoon-weighted Philadelphia Phillies 56% 44% 5–3
Pitcher + Platoon Philadelphia Phillies 73% 27% 4–2
Logistic Philadelphia Phillies 53% 47%
Random Forest Philadelphia Phillies 54% 46%
Consensus Philadelphia Phillies 60% 40% 4–3
All 6 sims got it right.

— How We've Done On These Teams —

Phillies this season

31–15

67% across 46 games

Marlins this season

29–18

62% across 47 games