Back to the recap

Monday · July 27 ✦

ASTROS @ ANGELS

Angel Stadium.

Final

ASTROS 6
Angels 4

Our Pick

LOS ANGELES ANGELS, narrowly

✗ Wrong

Projected: 3–3 Los Angeles Angels · Actual: 6–4 Astros

54%

Consensus

— Simulation Breakdown —

Simulation Pick Astros Angels Projected Result
Baseline Los Angeles Angels 47% 53% 3–4
Pitcher-weighted Houston Astros 51% 49% 3–3
Platoon-weighted Los Angeles Angels 38% 62% 3–4
Pitcher + Platoon Houston Astros 51% 49% 3–3
Logistic Los Angeles Angels 45% 55%
Random Forest Los Angeles Angels 42% 58%
Consensus Los Angeles Angels 46% 54% 3–3
2 of 6 sims got it right — Pitcher-weighted and Pitcher + Platoon caught what the others missed.

— How We've Done On These Teams —

Astros this season

69–52

57% across 121 games

Angels this season

68–54

56% across 122 games