Back to the recap

Sunday · July 5 · 2:05 PM ✦

PHILLIES @ ROYALS

Kauffman Stadium. · 87 degrees, partly cloudy, wind 7 mph r to l

Final

Phillies 2
ROYALS 5

Our Pick

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES

✗ Wrong

Projected: 4–3 Philadelphia Phillies · Actual: 2–5 Royals

56%

Consensus

— Simulation Breakdown —

Simulation Pick Phillies Royals Projected Result
Baseline Philadelphia Phillies 60% 40% 4–3
Pitcher-weighted Philadelphia Phillies 51% 49% 3–3
Platoon-weighted Philadelphia Phillies 64% 36% 4–3
Pitcher + Platoon Philadelphia Phillies 67% 33% 4–3
Logistic Philadelphia Phillies 53% 47%
Random Forest Kansas City Royals 33% 67%
Consensus Philadelphia Phillies 56% 44% 4–3
1 of 6 sims got it right — Random Forest caught what the others missed.

— How We've Done On These Teams —

Phillies this season

55–30

65% across 85 games

Royals this season

42–43

49% across 85 games