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Saturday · July 4 · 7:10 pm ✦

PHILLIES @ ROYALS

Kauffman Stadium. · 85 degrees, partly cloudy, wind 5 mph out to rf

Final

PHILLIES 6
Royals 1

Our Pick

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES, narrowly

✓ Correct

Projected: 4–3 Philadelphia Phillies · Actual: 6–1 Phillies

53%

Consensus

— Simulation Breakdown —

Simulation Pick Phillies Royals Projected Result
Baseline Philadelphia Phillies 56% 44% 4–3
Pitcher-weighted Philadelphia Phillies 58% 42% 4–3
Platoon-weighted Philadelphia Phillies 60% 40% 4–3
Pitcher + Platoon Kansas City Royals 47% 53% 4–3
Logistic Philadelphia Phillies 56% 44%
Random Forest Kansas City Royals 30% 70%
Consensus Philadelphia Phillies 53% 47% 4–3
4 of 6 sims got it right.

— How We've Done On These Teams —

Phillies this season

55–30

65% across 85 games

Royals this season

42–43

49% across 85 games